#balkansdebrief by Europe Center

Germany's political landscape is shifting after the parliamentary elections on February 23—conservatives won, the far-right AfD surged, and foreign policy questions loom large over Berlin. What will the next leadership in Germany mean for the country's approach to EU enlargement and, in particular, the Western Balkans?

The European Union's Growth Plan for the Western Balkans aims to accelerate economic growth and convergence in the region—but can it truly deliver? With reform, investment, and EU integration at stake, how can the region turn this initiative into real progress? Ilva Tare, Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, dives into the risks, opportunities, and challenges with three co-authors of the Atlantic Council's EU Growth Plan report: Valbona Zeneli, economist and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council; Richard Grieveson, Deputy Director at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies; and Isabelle Ioannides, Europe's Future Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences and the ERSTE Foundation. Can the Growth Plan restore trust in the EU's commitment to enlargement, or will political deadlock, limited funding, and institutional struggles stand in the way? What role can private sector investment and regional cooperation play in amplifying its impact? And how can the EU ensure stronger rule of law and accountability as part of the process? Join us for an in-depth discussion on #BalkansDebrief as we break down what's at stake for the region's economic future.

Serbia is at a crossroads. What started as grief over the Novi Sad tragedy has become a full-scale protest movement, forcing Prime Minister's Vučević's resignation and even earning students a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. But with no clear leader, how is pro-government media responding? Is this the start of real change, or will the movement be silenced? Ilva Tare, a Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, is joined in this episode of #BalkansDebrief by Igor Božić, News Director at TV N1, and Marko Prelević, editor of Nedeljnik, one of Serbia's most influential weekly news magazines. Who is the driving force behind these massive protests? How is the government-controlled press handling the massive protests? What comes next after the Prime Minister's resignation? Will this moment define Serbia's future? Tune in for an in-depth look at the movement shaking the Balkans.

As protests against lithium mining intensify across Serbia, fears of environmental damage and distrust in government accountability are uniting citizens like never before. Could this rare unity spark broader democratic change?

Ilva Tare, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, sits down with Majlinda Bregu, the outgoing Secretary General of the Regional Cooperation Council, in this compelling #BalkansDebrief episode to discuss the current challenges of the region's integration and cooperation as well as the gap between signing regional agreements and their actual implementation. Bregu highlights pressing issues such as the recognition of professional qualifications and the freedom of movement with ID cards, emphasizing that the effectiveness of these agreements relies heavily on the commitment of regional leaders to take action beyond ceremonial signings.

A last-minute breakthrough enabled the Western Balkans to sign key regional cooperation agreements at the Berlin Process Summit on October 14 of 2024. This was thanks to the skilled diplomacy of Manuel Sarrazin, Germany's Special Representative for the Western Balkans, and the political will of regional leaders.

As the Berlin Process celebrates its 10th anniversary in 2024, over 115 organizations gathered at the Civil Society and Think Tank Forum on October 9-11 this year to raise alarms about shrinking civic spaces, threats to democracy, and rising intimidation across the Western Balkans.

Cyber-attacks are on the rise in the Western Balkans, with 1.2 million personal records exposed to data breaches and a 200% surge in ransomware attacks over the past two years. Businesses across the region have paid millions of euros to recover compromised data, and 75% of companies report facing phishing attacks. Cyber-actors are exploiting internal ethnic tensions to target reconciliation efforts, while disinformation campaigns undermine democracy, destabilize institutions, and disrupt daily life.

Following the significant power shift in North Macedonia's May 8 elections, the VRMO-DPMNE party, led by Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski faces a complex landscape.

The European Union's recent memorandum of understanding with Serbia on raw materials has sparked debate across the Balkans. Signed during German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit, the MoU revives a controversial lithium mining project, drawing opposition from many Serbians.

Why should Europe focus on the Balkans? What are the potential opportunities and challenges for EU enlargement and the Growth Plan for this region?

For decades, the United States and Serbia have engaged in a delicate diplomatic dance. Recently, Serbian think tank representatives visited Washington, DC, for critical talks with US policymakers.

Football and politics are deeply intertwined, especially in the Balkans, where the mix can be volatile. At the UEFA Euro Cup in Germany this year, nationalistic chants and provocative acts highlighted the ongoing tensions among Balkan nations. Serbia, Albania, and Croatia clashed not only in the stadiums but also in a display of ethnic rivalries.

The recent International Republican Institute (IRI) poll on the Western Balkans has revealed some concerning trends for the region's aspirations of joining the European Union. While the war in Ukraine presented a potential opening, the path to membership appears to be facing significant challenges. 

The Western Balkans stand at a pivotal moment. Regional stability, security, and prosperity require a more robust US engagement. EU accession remains the goal but simmering ethnic tensions and resurgent nationalism demand a comprehensive US strategy that includes specific and actionable commitments.

As the May 8th runoff looms, the people of North Macedonia are gearing up for a pivotal parliamentary election that will chart the nation's course towards European Union integration, alongside the decisive second round of the presidential election. The outcomes are anticipated to signal a shift in the electorate's mood, reflecting their discontent with the stalled EU accession progress since the 2019 name change and the tensions with Bulgaria over demanded constitutional amendments.

The Western Balkans remain a security concern, particularly Bosnia and Herzegovina. Recently, France has deployed a battalion as part of the Strategic Reserve Force to assist the EUFOR mission and exercise a level of deterrence in Bosnia and Kosovo, two countries with security issues, where France wants to see progress.

North Macedonia, a small nation of 2 million, in the Western Balkans, gained international attention in 2019, when it agreed to the seemingly impossible: changing its name in exchange for EU negotiations and NATO membership. While NATO membership was secured, EU accession talks have stalled for years. This is largely due to Bulgaria's demand for Constitutional changes recognizing a Bulgarian minority.

Kosovo's recent ban on the dinar, aimed by the Kurti government at curbing illegal cash flow, has sparked tensions with US and the European partners and raised concerns about its impact on the Kosovo Serb community, on the normalization dialogue with Serbia, and Kosovo's wider relationship with its Western allies.

2024 has already plunged the Western Balkans into a maelstrom of complex developments. Serbia's post-election protests, the precarious Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, and the Kremlin-aligned Dodik's paramilitary parade all raise critical questions about the region's stability.

As 2024 dawns, the Balkans cling to a fragile dream: EU membership. But the region and the Union itself are beset by internal tremors. From simmering protests in Serbia to looming threats and economic storms, the region braces for a year of turbulence. Can they emerge resilient from this crucible?

Serbia witnessed a tumultuous end to 2023, with protests erupting in Belgrade following the December 17th elections. Thousands demand the annulment, alleging President Vučić's Progressive Party fabricated results through cross-border voting. Despite claiming a "cleanest and most honest" victory, international observers have condemned widespread fraud and manipulation. The West, has been criticized for turning a blind eye to Vučić's actions. But with renewed protests and whispers of regional conflict, will the honeymoon end?

A sigh of relief, perhaps even cautious optimism, has swept across the Western Balkans. The EU Council's decision to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, alongside a conditional green light for Bosnia and Herzegovina, signals renewed engagement with the region. But is this truly a new dawn, or just a flicker of light in persistent uncertainty?

In a groundbreaking agreement, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Albanian counterpart Edi Rama have agreed to establish a migrant processing center in Albania. The center will be funded by Italy and operate under Italian jurisdiction.

Kosovo's government's accepted the US-backed EU draft for the Association of Serbian Municipalities (ASM),  a positive move towards normalizing Serbia-Kosovo relations. However, the questions remain on how to ensure the ASM's implementation. 

After four and a half months of negotiations, a new pro-EU government led by the "Europe Now" leader, Milojko Spajic, was voted in by Parliament. The government includes a coalition of pro-European and pro-Serbian parties. In reaction to the appointment of Andrija Mandic, head of a pro-Serb and pro-Russia alliance called "For a Better Montenegro," protests emerged in Podgorica.

The European Parliament's (EP) resolution condemning Serbia's actions in northern Kosovo marks a significant development in the ongoing crisis between the two countries. The resolution calls for a freeze on funding for the Serbian government if it is found to have been directly involved in the recent attack in Banjska.

The recent murder of a Kosovar Albanian police officer by dozens of Serbian gunmen in the north of Kosovo is a reminder of the increasing security concerns between the two nations and the region at large. Given that the EU-led Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue for comprehensive normalization has reached a dead end, how should the international community respond to the violence and reconvene a dialogue? 

The war in Ukraine has renewed interest in EU enlargement in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans. The Berlin Process, which has been working to revitalize ties between Western Balkan candidate countries and the EU for the last 10 years, is now seeing its efforts pay off.

As the EU-facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina in Brussels faces a critical juncture, the pressing question arises: How do we navigate this impasse?

Ahead of a crucial vote to amend its constitution, Skopje's political landscape remains sharply divided. The current government strongly supports the changes, which will add language in recognition of the country's Bulgarian minority, while the opposition remains vehemently opposed. Even a pro-amendment campaign by EU and US diplomats has yet to tip the scales in favor of the amendment's adoption.

The Berlin Process, led by EU member states under German leadership, was revitalized last year to promote economic regional cooperation among the Western Balkans' six countries. Albania currently holds the chairmanship of the Berlin Summit, which is scheduled for October 16 in Tirana, with the participation of EU leaders.

Benefits of regional economic integration| A debrief with Stefan Lazarevic and Enio Jaco

Following snap parliamentary elections on June 11th, Montenegro finds itself in a new phase of political uncertainty. The Europe Now Movement (PES) won a plurality of the vote but failed to secure enough seats to form a government. More alarmingly, voter turnout hit a historic low of 56.4 percent due in part to election fatigue and a lack of political change. Now more than ever, the country needs consensus if it is to continue necessary reforms on its path to EU membership.

Will Kosovo and Serbia make concessions towards normalization? A debrief with Sen. Chris Murphy

What's behind the escalation in Kosovo? A debrief with Jovana Radosavljevic and Agon Maliqi

Why the European future of the Balkans depends on Serbia? | A Debrief with Borut Pahor

What's next after Bulgarian elections? A Debrief with Dimitar Bechev

Mediated by the European Union and supported by the United States, the Ohrid summit between Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is a historic opportunity to resolve a long-standing dispute between Serbia and Kosovo and accelerate the Euro-Atlantic integration process for both countries.

On February 27th, Serbia and Kosovo agreed that no further discussion are needed on the EU proposal for normalization of relations, which could potentially pave the way for the resolution of an unfinished conflict. The agreement was a step forward in normalizing relations between Serbia and Kosovo with focus on guarantees and protection of legitimate rights of the Serbian community across the territory of Kosovo. 

North Macedonia's accession to the European Union has been delayed in the last two years due to disagreements with Bulgaria. The dispute centers around the identity of the Slavs in Macedonia and whether there is a istinctly Macedonian ethnicity and language.

Even though the situation between Serbia and Kosovo is more tense than in recent memory, with the war in Ukraine as a backdrop, the broader situation in the region remains unchanged. As EU enlargement remains stalled, the best prospect for improving the lives of citizens in the region appears to be the private sector investment in economic development.

Another end-of-year flare-up in the north of Kosovo was just the latest in a cycle of crisis that repeats itself every time a deadline for normalization is approaching or a new agreement is about to take effect between Kosovo and Serbia.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has largely defined the year with the crises across the Western Balkans shaping against this grim backdrop. Even though the year-end leaves the region in an uncertain place, with tensions between Serbia and Kosovo at an all-time high, some positive developments ought to be noted.

The recent EU-Western Balkans summit in Tirana, Albania, was seen as a step in the right direction for reinvigorating the EU enlargement process. Is there a new political will for enlargement among the EU member states? How did the new geopolitical momentum following Russia's aggression in Ukraine affect the membership prospects of the Western Balkan countries?

When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz broke the news of a Berlin Process 2.0, the Western Balkans' hopes for a revival of European enlargement were revived. The Common Regional Market and the 'four freedoms' are at the heart of Berlin process, but previous negotiations broke down in Sofia due to differences between Serbia and Kosovo. 

While the United States is expected to bolster its political commitment to the Western Balkans through economic support, a bipartisan bill introduced in Congress aims to enhance those efforts by providing increased funding and technical assistance.  

Bosnian citizens voted for new representatives on October 2. Immediately after the polls closed the Office of the High Representative, led by Christian Schmidt, imposed a new election law requiring immediate implementation.

After a decade of attempts to reach an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, the EU and the US appear to have joined forces to find solutions for a long-lasting deal for the future of both countries. Thirteen policy experts from Serbia and Pristina authored a document proposing four likely scenarios.

What is the likelihood that a new government will be formed in Montenegro following the vote of no-confidence? Why did Prime Minister Abazovic lose the parliamentary support? Did President of Montenegro Milo Djukanovic play a role in the country's recent political unrest?

Another crisis between Kosovo and Serbia was averted following close involvement of the EU and the US officials in facilitating reciprocal recognition of ID cards. Conversation now moves forward under the auspices of the EU-facilitated Dialogue.

With general elections set to take place in October, the Bosnian political spectrum still has to reach an agreement to revise the electoral law. Why did the Office of High Representative's proposed changes to the electoral law start protests in Sarajevo?